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South Australia risks losing up to 16,000 jobs and $1.5 billion in economic activity in a domino effect should Holden's drop the state from its car manufacturing staple.
The fear of closure was realised on Monday, when Holden's announced 400 redundancies from its Elizabeth plant and 100 from Victoria, citing the high Australian dollar and global competitive pressures.
The knock-on effect of a massive economic disaster for the state should Holden's eventually close in SA was forecast in a report prepared for the state and federal governments in February last year.
Professor Barry Burgan from the University of Adelaide was tasked with writing the report as the two levels of government considered a $275 million taxpayer-funded grant to continue production until 2022.
Losses in state tax revenue of between $25 and $83 million along with $133 million in wages, issues of unemployment and the effect on suppliers with hundreds of employees each were identified as realistic if Holden's were to shut shop in SA.
Of the report, Professor Burgan told Fairfax: "It doesn't provide argument for or against the [government-funded] support other than it makes the point that Holden's is a very important operation within the South Australian context."
In Monday's job-losses announcement, Holden's managing director Mike Devereux did not guarantee the company's future in South Australia.
"There are no guarantees in life or in the automotive business ... I cannot predict the future," he said.
"What we need to do is make great cars that Australians want to buy."
'No forced redundancies', say union
A meeting between the Australian Manufacturing Workers Union and senior Holden's executive to discuss the 400 redundancies is scheduled for Friday.
John Camillo from the AMWU said job security for remaining employees would be a focus as well as support for those who decided to take a redundancy package.
"The union's made it quite clear that there'll be no forced redundancies at the Elizabeth operation," he said.
"So, we'll sit down with Holden's and work out the best to go forward ... They [Holden's] might get their 400 voluntary redundancies and then we won't have a problem.
"We'll know in a few days, from our shop stewards [delegates] whether they will achieve their 400 voluntary separation packages."
Mr Camillo said there were concerns that it was "the beginning of the end" for Holden's operations in South Australia.
"This is a major concern for us," he said.
Holden's will cut nearly 20 per cent of its work force in this latest round of SA redundancies, on top of another 170 in November last year.
Commodore sales dropped by almost 25 per cent last year, sliding to a little more than 30,000, roughly a third of the car’s 1998 peak.
