Charles Sturt University political expert Troy Whitford says splitting the conservative vote at the Cootamundra by-election could have terrible consequences for the National Party.
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“I think they’re worried and won’t take anything for granted,” Mr Whitford said. “With the Shooters and (Australia First’s) Jim Saleam in it, splitting the conservative vote will only cause more difficulty for the Nats.”
Despite Katrina Hodgkinson’s impressive 30-point margin at the last state election, Mr Whitford said incumbent parties often lost 10 per cent of their primary vote when someone resigned.
“It’s not enough to hand Labor the seat, but if those other parties preference Labor over the Nationals, it could be very problematic,” Mr Whitford said. “It’s certainly one to watch.”
Mr Whitford is a former executive director of a National Party think tank.